MotoGP Pre-Race: Michelin® Grand Prix de France

The fifth round of the 2024 MotoGP World Championship heads to the historic Circuit Le Mans next weekend, where Francesco Bagnaia will look to close the 17 point gap to championship leader Jorge Martin. With 17 rounds remaining this season, there is still plenty of time for riders to make up ground in the title fight. 

Martin has impressed in the early part of 2024 in his way to a 92 point haul so far. The Spaniard’s aggressive riding style is reflected in his inseason average rankings of 1st in weighted predator and weighted prey, meaning he has showcased excellent offensive and defensive skills in battles this year. Martin also ranks higher on speed and consistency in 2024 compared to past seasons. However, his 25% in-season crash rate and 50% historical average crash rate at Le Mans will be a concern. 

Hot on Martin’s heels is reigning champion Bagnaia aboard his Ducati Lenovo Team machine. While Bagnaia’s results have been solid, his rankings in consistency and deterioration are worrisome – sitting 16th and 11th respectively. This indicates Bagnaia has struggled to find a good rhythm and manage tires over race distance compared to his rivals. However, his top efficiency ranking shows an ability to make clean overtakes stick. If Bagnaia can unlock more consistency, he has the potential to take over the lead of the championship.

Enea Bastianini has burst onto the scene gathering 70 points for Ducati Lenovo Team. His sensational speed and consistency rankings of 1st in both categories highlight Bastianini’s stellar riding, while his 2nd ranked deterioration rating is a good sign for tire preservation. With a flawless record this season, Bastianini looks poised to be a title threat if he maintains this form and could even overtake Bagnaia atop the standings.

Rookie Pedro Acosta has made an immediate impact for Red Bull GASGAS Tech3, scoring 69 points so far including a podium in both Portugal and Texas. Acosta’s 3rd place weighted predator ranking indicates strong overtaking ability, though his consistency and deterioration need work. But his 3rd place weighted predator ranking indicates he has the race craft to battle at the front.

With 63 points, Maverick Vinales has led an Aprilia Racing resurgence with his tire management skills shining through this season. The Spaniard will aim to convert his strong inseason average rankings into a podium challenge similar to that in Austin. Gresini duo Alex Marquez and Marc Marquez sit midpack in the standings. While Alex's net position gains have him best of the rest, elder brother Marc is quickly finding his rhythm after injury and team switch. His legendary predator skills could awaken at any time, so the Marquez brothers always warrant close observation.

All eyes will be on the big-name riders sitting mid-pack as Fabio Quartararo and Jack Miller seek better fortune. Quartararo is still adapting to 2024 the Monster Energy Yamaha after winning the 2021 title, though his in-season net movement proves he can still battle through the field. For Miller, it’s been a tough start to life at Red Bull KTM Factory Racing as he seeks to recapture the front-running form of previous seasons. Several others competitive riders such as Brad Binder, Aleix Espargaro and Third-year Marco Bezzecchi have accumulated points in the 30s and 40s. They'll look to improve in the historical average deficiency areas of speed or predator skills and translate that into bigger point hauls.

Further down the order, Repsol Honda teammates Joan Mir and Luca Marini have struggled in the early rounds this season. Mir’s rankings of 15th in speed and 9th in consistency show a lack of outright pace, made worse by his significantly high historical crash rate in Le Mans. Marini’s lowly points tally is reflected in poor rankings across the board, in particular weighted predator and weighted prey of 21st and 22nd. The Honda riders will hope to turn their seasons around next weekend. 

Overall, the close championship battle means riders will take extra risks to gain an edge. The rankings show a mix of strengths and weaknesses across the field, making tire management and consistency key factors. After four races of building momentum, the fifth round marks a chance for riders like Bagnaia and Bastianini to topple Martin in a tight title fight.